C045

Outcome Expectation Bias

B05 Emotional Core
Core LayerMML-1

Version v1.3.2

Definition

The default expected outcome given reasonable effort: “it will likely work” vs. “it will likely fail,” especially in new or uncertain tasks.

Poles

Each HES element is a spectrum, not a category: the Low and High poles describe how it presents at its two extremes, while the Reference marks the typical, everyday middle. The poles map variation across the range — neither end is inherently better or worse.

Low Pole

Negative outcome expectation bias: defaults to expecting failure; effort feels low-yield; frequent “probably won’t work.”

High Pole

Positive outcome expectation bias: defaults to expecting success; effort feels worthwhile; frequent “likely to work.”

Reference

Balanced expectations: “it may work if...” with realistic constraint awareness.

Measure

Systematic forecast bias versus a realistic base rate: how much probability estimates skew up/down given comparable information.

Measuring Methods

• Forecast series with known base rates (without disclosure), compared against base.
• Tracking past forecasts vs. outcomes.
• “Reasonable effort” scenarios: expected success probability.

Empirical Anchor

Dispositional optimism / pessimism (Scheier & Carver, 1985); LOT-R; explanatory style (Abramson et al., 1978).

Notes

• Not identical to self-esteem: one can trust oneself and still forecast cautiously, or vice versa.
• Risks at MIN: withdrawal, learned helplessness patterns.
• Risks at MAX: risk underweighting, resource overestimation.

Citation

APA

Human Elements System. (2026). Outcome Expectation Bias (HES Passport C045, v1.3.2). hestable.com. https://hestable.com/passport/C045

BibTeX

@misc{hes_C045, author = {{Human Elements System}}, title = {{Outcome Expectation Bias}}, year = {2026}, note = {HES Passport C045, v1.3.2}, howpublished = {\url{https://hestable.com/passport/C045}} }